Investments: with the low Selic rate, where to invest?: with low Selic, where to invest? The Selic rate has fallen for the 16th time and the basic interest rates of the economy are now at
Investments: with low Selic rate, where to invest?
We have always heard that we want a more active and heated Brazilian market, with exemplary interest rates. That is where we normally use large countries such as the United States of America as examples. Where the interest rate is very low. Poré,. with Selic down, where to invest? Falling interest: where to invest? The Selic rate has dropped for the 16th time and the basic interest rates of the economy are now 4.5% per year.
The fall is good for the development of the real economy, because it opens up opportunities for the development of the country’s Capital Market, by making investment in fixed income — savings, CDB, LCI, Selic Treasury bonds, which may even lose from inflation. But that means that the investor will have to look for other investment options.
” low Selic is positive for companies because previously, with high Selic, it was too expensive for them to take debt to do development projects. With low Selic it becomes more viable. We will have more companies developing and growing, and this encourages the stock market and also private credit, which is a fixed income different from that to which we are accustomed. It will be enough to continue investing in fixed income, but it will be a fixed income with a little more risk. We will have to get used to this novelty: in order to have more profitability, we will need to take more risk”,
that’s what Gabriela Mosmann, an analyst at Suno Research, says.
For her, the high yields obtained in a completely secure way that we have seen in the past, with fixed income bonds, public bonds, paying almost 15% per year, this will no longer exist. These rates are not typical of stabilised economies, but of countries with high inflation.
What rates of CBD
What are CBD rates? In the current scenario, interest rate at 9%, the investments in the CBD are more interesting than the investment in savings, even if the income tax is collected. The disadvantage is that the CBD has a minimum value for application between R $ 200.00 and R $ 2,000.00. This value varies according to the bank. 2017
According to the analyst, when Selic fell to 5% a year at the last meeting, the forecast was already that the fixed income would yield less than inflation.
“This is not a complete novelty, as we have already had real losses even with the highest Selic.
When savings were 6% a year and inflation was 10% in 2015, for example, the real loss for the investor was about 4%, but this is now getting more “on the face”.
Real loss is the negative result of the account that compares profitability and inflation.
To know where to invest with the fall of the interest rate to the lowest historical level see the recommendation of experts Gabriela Mosmann and Mauro Calil, founder of the Academy of money.
is saving investment?
When the Selic rate is below 8.5% per year, savings income falls from 0.5% per year + TR (benchmark rate) to 70% of Selic plus TR. with the fall in the interest rate, savings risk losing to inflation. But for Gabriela Mosmann the savings are not bad at all, because it is better for the person to apply in the savings than not to save any money.
“But we are reaching a level of economic stability that if the investor does not take any risks he will not earn anything and may still lose money.”
They are the safest investments because they have the guarantee of the Treasury, that is, of the government, and the government is the last to break.
The Selic Treasury pays 100% of Selic’s income. The lower Selic is, the lower the yield on that security. This security has a lot of liquidity, that is, it allows the investor to transform the application into cash quickly. It is suitable for storing the money from the emergency reserve, which should not be aimed at good remuneration, but precisely liquidity.
IPCA+ Treasury and prefixed Treasury-are more suitable for medium to long-term investments, for those aiming at the investment horizon of five to ten years, because they contain a little more risk. Those securities pay what the investor hired when he bought, but only if the investor expects the maturity of the security. If you decide to withdraw the money halfway, you can earn more or lose money, depending on how the interest rate is at that time. That’s called market marking.
Gabriela says that, ” personally, he doesn’t like the prefixed, he prefers the inflation-indexed title, which guarantees the protection of inflation plus a previously agreed remuneration”.
” I prefer the closest maturities and the non-coupon titles.”
CDBs and LCIs
These fixed income investments lose their relevance with the falling interest rate. ” A CBD that yields 100% or 120% of Selic does not have much difference with this low interest rate, ” says Gabriela.
These securities are guaranteed by the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC), a kind of investment insurance that covers up to R$ 250,000.
Real Estate Funds
As the interest rate fell, demand for real estate funds increased. This is an investment in variable income. The funds are condominiums of investors in real estate whose assets can be composed of commercial, residential, rural or urban real estate, built or under construction, which will be sold, rented or leased. The return on the fund tends to be higher the lower interest and inflation, which is the current scenario. ” A well-purchased real estate portfolio will give 0.6% to 0.7% net per month to the investor, compared to a return of 0.3% to 0.5% per month of a rental, ” says Mauro Calil.
” a well-purchased real estate portfolio will give 0.6% to 0.7% net per month to the investor, compared to a return of 0.3% to 0.5% per month of a rental,” says Mauro Calil.
“But that’s not the great advantage of real estate funds. The great advantage is mobility. If the tenant leaves a property he will be dislodged, the owner will pay for the condo, IPTU, take maintenance, with everything. In a bottom this does not happen.”
Mauro Calil calls these funds “back flip,” because they don’t fit into anything. They can invest in interest, currencies, shares, they can do leveraged operations, they can work with fixed income. The important thing to choose is to see historical profitability, if the manager delivers good results continuously and especially if the manager is still there.
” sometimes changes the management head and you don’t know it,” he says.
The fall in the interest rate should be to favor investments in shares traded on the Stock Exchange. Anyone who wants to start investing in actions to seek greater profitability should start slowly, says Gabriela.
If you buy a single bank share you will be taking the risk of the institution, but instead of being the creditor, as in the case of investing in CBD, you will be a partner. Instead of interest you will earn dividends and the stock valuation. To begin to understand this investment, she advises investing in funds rather than buying single papers.
in this way, you will be delegating the choice of shares to qualified managers,” he says.
Dollar and Variable Exchange
The dollar is not recommended by any of the experts as an investment. They advise the purchase of the currency only for those who will have some expense in dollar, such as vacation travel, study, shopping abroad. In this case, Calil advises to gradually buy the coin when the dollar falls.
“There’s always a week in the month when the dollar drops. Then take the money, and buy the quota that month, ” he says. For those who want to have some investment linked to the dollar, it is more recommended to invest in foreign exchange funds or funds they use in foreign currency.
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